Hit the Quan II
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This is the Warner Chappell Music writers share of Buck Nasty. This includes the two popular songs Hit the Quan and Lean and Dabb.
TERM: LIFE OF COPYRIGHT
CATALOG: This is the Warner Chappell Music writers share of Cordarius Williams, aka Buck Nasty’s, catalog which includes the hits Hit the Quan and Lean and Dabb,
RIGHTS INCLUDED: 100% OF THE SELLERS WRITERS SHARE PAID BY WARNER CHAPPELL MUSIC
TYPE OF ASSETS: WRITERS SHARE
LAST 12 MONTHS REVENUE: $10,158
Cordarius Williams, aka Buck Nasty, is a prolific songwriter with Warner Chappell Music. A full biography can be found HERE.
This is an excellent catalog of mainly two iLoveMemphis hit songs, Hit the Quan and Lean and Dabb which were both released in 2015 and which represent 99% of the income of the catalog on average.
By looking at the income we see there was a large drop off from the first half of 2019 to the second half but a solid increase in 2020.
But unlike looking at performance rights income, where payments are very indicative of performance, label income is not because usually that income is not from that half-year only, but also previous years. We will analyze the payments and what year and half-year they actually apply to so that we can build a more realistic picture of the income and learn why there was a drop-off and what that means for future income.
In this chart, we can look at each half-year payment and see which half-year it was actually applied to when earned. Looking at the bottom of the chart we can see that each payment can range from 18% to 54% of that years actual earned income. So that means 60% to 70% of the income from that paid period is actually for 2 years of back payments or more.
This makes it very difficult to accurately forecast income moving forward. But further analysis of each main income source allows us to put a picture together of what the real income looks like.
Looking at the income when earned, not paid, and by type, we can see why there has been a large drop off from several sources and/or one-time payments.
The majority of drop off was from YouTube moving from $5K down to $500 where it looks like it has stabilized.
We also had around $2K to $4K of US Synch and Facebook payments in 2018 as well as a $1,693 Spotify settlement in the first half of 2019.
By looking at the top income producers by type and when earned, we can start to build what the true income looks like for the first half of 2020. In the chart above, I have consolidated the top income types.
Inside the detailed data spreadsheet, if you download it below, you can see the breakout of most of the major types I have forecasted here so you can see how the income doesn’t come in for that half-year, but over two years or more. So we have to look at each income type individually because they are all different.
Once we see how the income comes in over time, then we can fill in the blanks to get a better forecast of what this last half-year really looks like.
You have three main income types. YouTube, Performance Rights Organizations, and Direct Payments.
YouTube has seen a substantial decline in 2019 and although it looks like it is holding in 2019 we are projecting it to take another hit in 2020 and continue to decline a bit in the future. This is very normal for YouTube income as listeners not normally watch videos of older songs.
Performance Rights Organizations are broken into two categories, the US and Everywhere else. In the US, BMI pays for performances, like Radio, and we see a steady decline that is starting to flatten out. We don’t have month by month data, but it looks like it is now very close to flatline with minimal degradation moving forward.
The international rights organizations all see the same similar degradations except for SOCAN in Canada where they saw an increase in revenue. If you look at the green section of the chart we also see some net new revenue from this last payment which could drive another $130 or more in recurring revenue.
Direct payments are made by streaming services and other mechanical income sources and they are aggregated in Fox and Music Reports. Fox saw a large increase in overall income and if we look at the chart below we can see that mainly came from Spotify where income almost doubled. Rhapsody also bumped the income with first time reporting of $144 and the other major income from Apple looks to be very steady over the last three years.
These are two classic dance songs that continue to resonate with fans because it is not just the music but the associated dance moves with it.
Although we see a large drop in YouTube, that tracks normally as people don’t watch the video as much over time. The performance income type shows normal degradation but streaming actually is seeing a bump. This could be attributed to the overall growth in streaming but there aren’t enough details to see why.
Risk is low overall because of the types of these two songs and the data we are seeing. There should be some degradation over time but streaming looks very good.
The forecast is about $4K per half-year or $8K a year. This will not be steady income because per above, because the income that comes in, isn’t only for that half-year, so it could go up and down based on what is coming in, but from a “when earned” perspective it looks like it is on a solid track.
Download the Detailed Data HERE.