TERM: LIFE OF COPYRIGHT
PAYMENT FOR WINNING BID: Please disregard the PayPal info listed. Payments can be wired, it will not be via PayPal.
CATALOG: This is a solid catalog comprising earlier songs from Foxy Brown and two recent hits from 2018, one from Nicki Minaj with Foxy Brown and a single from Drake’s Scorpion album.
RIGHTS INCLUDED: • 100% OF THE SELLERS ASCAP INTEREST • PAID BY ASCAP
TYPE OF ASSETS: PERFORMANCE RIGHTS INTEREST
REVENUE IN THE REPORTED LAST TWELVE MONTHS: $ 20,767
The two new songs represent 58% percent of the current revenue which can be a high risk. But before we look at those two songs let’s look at the rest of the others and their trend.
The trend line on the other 42% of the catalog is actually trending up. This was normalized removing $3,969 from Q1 2018 an $969 from Q1 2019. This was an anomaly from the Netherlands for the song Ride, which caught fire in that country. We would expect to get a smaller bounce in Q1 2020, but not at the $969 level. The good news is that this 42% looks like solid income from legacy Foxy Brown songs. So the risk is in these two songs that represent 53% and 5% of the follow on income. Coco Chanel is a song by Nicki Minaj and Foxy Brown released in August of 2018. Since it is a smaller song for Nicki and it has already had four quarters of revenue I would look like this could see more contraction. Looking at the detailed income stream from that song we can see that there is the normal delay from international coming in and from Domestic Internet the number is still coming down.
The Net of Coco Chanel is that there is definite downside for this song in the longer term but with only 5% of revenue, we could expect this could to $75 and potentially hold in that range. Mob Ties has a lower risk to the downside because of being a Drake song. Looking at the Domestic streaming and Radio play we can see that there is still some degradation which we would continue to expect over the next four quarters leveling out after that. So potentially we could see the $1,100 number to drop down to $500 in the next four quarters. International is mainly PRS (UK) and SOCAN (Canada). Drake is Canadian and both are actually increasing in revenue which could be because of the reporting lag. We could see this number continuing to increase over the next four quarters but then dropping off by as much as 50% or more down to the $400 – $500 range.
Once we see the drop off over the next four quarters it would seem that this catalog will stabilize and potentially continue on its slow growth path based on the strength of the current catalog of songs and the pull from Drake. Just some additional data points in looking at income types don’t show any anomalies outside of the items discussed above.
Conclusion: This is a solid catalog to own over time, just take into account the drop off over the next four quarters to stabilize and then good long term potential.
Link to Data:
Raw Excel Data