Auction Closed Reserve: [Not met]Top Bidder: acalcaterra SMGE's is a mixed diverse catalog of covers of Latin Hits and Classic Songs. This catalog includes both streaming income from Apple and digital downloads. As expected, downloads have continued to decline while streaming revenue has been increasing. The good news is that this catalog's income has been following steady trends so it is easier to evaluate than other more erratic catalogs.
SMGE's Cover Songs Catalog
Highest Bid : $55000.00[1 Bids]
LIFE OF COPYRIGHT
Reserve: [Not met]Top Bidder: acalcaterra
SMGE's is a mixed diverse catalog of covers of Latin Hits and Classic Songs. This catalog includes both streaming income from Apple and digital downloads. As expected, downloads have continued to decline while streaming revenue has been increasing. The good news is that this catalog's income has been following steady trends so it is easier to evaluate than other more erratic catalogs.
SMGES: TWO LABELS LATINO HITS ORCHESTRA and SMGES INCLUDE COVERS AND RINGTONES OF MANY CLASSICS AND HITS FROM LATIN AMERICA. LOTS OF THEM ARE CLASSICS THAT WERE NOT UPLOADED BY THE ORIGINAL LABELS TO THE DIGITAL STORE BECAUSE MANY OF THIS LABELS JUST DISAPPEARED. LOTS OF MEXICAN MUSIC, INSTRUMENTALS, AND PLAYBACKS. (List of Titles)
• 85% OF THE SELLERS INTEREST
• DISTRIBUTED BY APPLE, CONTROLLED BY SUNFLY MUSIC
TYPE OF ASSETS:
SOUND RECORDINGS: INSTRUMENTAL PLAYBACKS, COVER SONGS, AND RINGTONES OF LATIN, ITALIAN AND INTERNATIONAL MUSIC.
REVENUE IN THE REPORTED LAST TWELVE MONTHS:
UPLOAD OF AT LEAST 3 NEW ALBUMS WITH 10 TRACKS PER LABEL PER YEAR.
Analysis of Revenue and Streams/Downloads:
To complete the analysis we will look at revenue, streaming and download data.
Revenue – Revenue numbers go back to 2015 so we have a great history of data. I have broken the revenue numbers down by Streaming and Downloads because both are trending on very different paths. The good news is that the trends are very clear so it is easy to understand and analyze this data.
Streaming and Downloads – As you will see when looking at the revenue and actual numbers of downloads and streaming, they are following the industry trends. Streaming is growing at a pretty linear pace and downloads are decreasing as well. It does look like download revenue is not declining at the same rate in the last 12 months as is has been, but there is no doubt it will continue to decline.
Using Excel’s linear forecast using the last 12 months of data we can see a trend line out for the next 12 months.
The download trend is very apparent although as mention above, it is not as steep over that last 12 months. The trend line is a simple Excel linear forecast for the next 12 months.
Mix of Titles:
The next item to evaluate when looking at a catalog like this is the type of songs and mix of titles. As described above these are all cover songs, so they are not by the artists themselves. When you look at the charts below you will see that the top streaming songs are very different than the top download songs. I have no explanation for this but there is some good news in each group.
The mix of songs that top the downloads are a combination of classic and current Latino hits as well as top 40 hits, again all covers. What I like about the mix is that in the top 10 titles, they only represent 15% of the total download and only three songs are over 1% with the top song only at 3%.
This tells us that the revenue is being generated by a huge variety of songs and that there is no undue risk on one song or group of songs or genre.
The streaming data’s top titles are all classic and newer Latino songs. It is harder to get some of these older songs on CD, so I think that is why we see continued strength in these numbers. They are also trending the same way as all streaming is right now in continued growth.
We are a little heavier on the top 10 songs on streaming where they comprise 29% of the total streams with two songs at 7.6% and 6.9% which are two classic Latino hits. The rest of the top ten are at 2.9% to 1%, again all Latino hits.
Although there is no way to forecast music revenue, what we can do is take the decrease of download and the increase of streaming over the last 12 months and apply that same trend to the current revenue. Again this is NOT a true forecast, only a model based on the last 12 months.
We are showing the last three years of revenue by Download and Streaming through the end of July 2018. We then use the last 12 months revenue as the starting point to apply the model. You can now see how it forecasts out the next four years so that you can have at least some kind of indication what the catalog “could” do over a 4 year period of time. I have included the 4 year total revenue potential as well.
There are many factors that can come into effect over the next four years as music is constantly changing so run your own models to create your own revenue projections.
This is a solid catalog that still has declining revenue with downloads and increasing streaming, so overall revenue is still in decline and will be for the foreseeable future. At some point, streaming could overtake the decline in downloads but that is very far out in the future. The mix of songs is strong so there is little risk there.
Areas of Risk:
• Downloads are still decreasing overall in the market
• Unknown how to really forecast a declining catalog
• There are various things that could affect the music industry negatively in the future
There are three spreadsheets that you can review in Dropbox that contains all of this data.
Here is a list of some of the top songs and their Spotify links.
El colesterol https://open.spotify.com/track/1qJVmiCnx1FtupDzCwuG1Y
Este corazón https://open.spotify.com/track/0btGKKdg60mpDojXLKhxpI
No me conoces aun https://open.spotify.com/track/1bjdppD7M6JTBf6usJW1ax
Aca entre nos https://open.spotify.com/track/4T7pIG2OUPAqjoxtKTPygO
Nuestro amor https://open.spotify.com/track/5OHEne19LVRuXcbPmWGDNn
Count On Me (Tribute to Bruno Mars) https://open.spotify.com/track/1vnrzaHRfuv6plyd8PFjPf
Desert Rose (Tribute to Sting) https://open.spotify.com/track/2peZuf6KsMcTKuMgBP0Sbo
Feliz Navidad (Tribute to José Feliciano) https://open.spotify.com/track/4wKSR0u72xqvRCTCFPdz4z
Time To Say Goodbye (con te partiro) (Tribute to Andrea Bocelli) https://open.spotify.com/track/37lUM4Zpy6KPUqGJ11bikP
My Immortal (Tribute to Evanescence) https://open.spotify.com/track/5OQCXQ5wnsvxX0rBLO9FNi